640,000 young Israelis hold 12 Knesset seats in Tuesday's vote

On Oct. 27, approximately 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 will cast their first ballots in a national election. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, this demographic represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choice could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, exemplifies the skepticism toward the incumbent administration. She is currently in an army preparation program in the Negev and intends to vote for one of the opposition parties in the change bloc. She identified either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, as her likely choice. She cited the duration of the current government and the handling of the war as primary reasons for her stance.

Turnout data suggests this cohort is more engaged than previous generations. A May survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 80% to 95% of young Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or likely vote. This figure contrasts sharply with the 47% youth turnout in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth confirmed high motivation, with 67% of young respondents certain to vote and another 19% thinking they would.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that national security and the cost of living are the top priorities for these voters. She observed that many young people experienced their adolescence during periods of instability, including the judicial reform protests and the events of Oct. 7. Despite the common perception that military service drives young voters rightward, Hoffman said mock elections in high schools often show support for opposition parties like Yashar and Beyachad.

Individual voters highlight specific policy concerns. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old in a Golan Heights prep program, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, citing support for West Bank policies. Tomer Shiloh, also in the Golan, will vote for the change bloc, prioritizing mandatory conscription for Haredi men and lower living costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, will vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and crime in Arab municipalities.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, is voting for the left-of-center Democrats due to economic pressures. He noted that many university students must work while studying to cover tuition and housing. The Israel Democracy Institute co-sponsored a recent event for first-time voters with the Yigal Allon Center, where Hoffman emphasized that high participation rates are expected based on their research.