AI Models Edge Yamal Over Kane, Mbappe for 2026 Ballon d'Or
Data firm Avisia projects Lamine Yamal as the favorite, while bookmakers put Harry Kane at 70 percent ahead of the London ceremony.
By Rachel Adams ·
French data analysis firm Avisia has projected Lamine Yamal as the leading candidate for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, with the Barcelona winger assigned a 23 percent probability of winning the award for the best player of the 2025-26 season. The announcement comes less than 24 hours before the winner is named at a ceremony at the London Palladium.
Avisia placed Harry Kane second at 21 percent and Kylian Mbappe third at 19 percent, tied with 2024 winner Rodri. Lionel Messi sits at 18 percent, giving him a shot at a record-extending ninth title. Avisia said its models correctly identified the top five for the 2025 award, which went to Ousmane Dembele.
Bookmakers point the other way. Kane is priced at about 70 percent to win outright, making him the market favorite despite Avisia's model. Mbappe leads the individual statistics as La Liga's top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League's leading scorer with 15, and he took the World Cup Golden Boot while setting the record for most World Cup goals at 12. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the most since Messi's 82 in 2011-12, and won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich. Mbappe won no trophy with club or country; England finished third at the World Cup under Kane's captaincy.
Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, though injury limited his personal statistics. Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to lift the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in their award year.
Players and coaches have split on the field. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone said Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves the award: "After the World Cup, he played at his age. No doubt about it." Former Italy defender Marco Materazzi agreed, saying Messi at 38 is "in a different league." Jude Bellingham, also shortlisted, backed Kane, while Barcelona's Anthony Gordon pointed to Yamal, saying what he has achieved at his age is "ridiculous." Real Madrid's Aurelien Tchouameni said Mbappe had "an incredible season."
Yamal, 19, would become the youngest winner if he takes the prize, surpassing Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
Source: Al Jazeera
